By the Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated February 23, 2023, the Strategy for Achieving Carbon Neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2060 was approved. In December 2020, at the summit of climate ambitions, Kazakhstan announced a new goal – achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, confirming its commitments under the Paris Agreement on preventing global temperature growth by more than 1.5-2°C. Thus, the work on documents was carried out for several years, taking into account that the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan had previously worked on Concept of Low-Carbon Development of Kazakhstan until 2050. We will try to reflect the key aspects in terms of the development of the electric grid and RES, which were covered by the Strategy.

Strategy for achieving carbon neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2060 has been developed taking into account global climate trends and in compliance with relevant international commitments. The Strategy defines national approaches, the strategic course of state policy for consistent transformation of economy to ensure well-being, sustainable economic growth and equitable social progress and is adopted to ensure the coherence and coordination of state policies.

Kazakhstan signed the Paris Agreement on August 2, 2016, and ratified it on December 6, 2016. Before the official signing of the Paris Agreement in September 2015, Kazakhstan demonstrated its commitment to its goal by presenting its NDC within the framework of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which assumes the achievement of the following goals:

-       unconditional reduction of GHG emissions by 15% by December 2030 compared to 1990;

-       conditional reduction of GHG emissions by 25% by December 2030 compared to 1990, subject to additional international investments, access to a mechanism for transfer of low-carbon technologies, funds from Green Climate Fund and flexible mechanism for countries with economies in transition.

The structure of national GHG emissions is dominated by three GHGs with a total share of more than 99.5 %:

- 81.6% of national GHG emissions are represented by carbon dioxide (CO2), which is mainly released during the combustion of organic fuels, as well as in arable farming;

- 12.4% - methane (CH4), released mainly in the processes of extraction, transportation, transshipment/storage of fuel, biodegradation of organic waste and animal rearing for production of meat, milk, wool and hides;

-  5.6% - nitrous oxide (N2O).

The remaining types of GHGs enter the atmosphere as a result of industrial processes.

The largest share of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan belongs to the Energy sector (77.6% of national net emissions), followed by the importance of the contribution to national emissions of the Agriculture sector with a share of 11.6% and further descending: "Industrial processes and use of products" (IPUS) (6.3%), "Land use, land-use change and forestry" (LULUCF) (2.4%) and "Waste" (2.1%)

Strategy notes that greenhouse gas emissions from primary energy production (extraction sector) account for 16.6% of all GHG emissions (58.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Of these, 8.1 percentage points are volatile emissions, and 6.7 percentage points are covered by volatile emissions from coal mining (23.7 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2020).

The final demand for energy consists of direct combustion of fuel in industry, transport, agriculture, as well as residential and non-residential buildings;  use of electric and thermal energy. In the structure of fuel and energy resources used in the country (150.7 million tons of oil equivalent), oil and petroleum products account for 41%, coal and coal products - 29.4%, natural gas, including compressed (motor fuel) - 7.6%, electricity - 16.2%, heat - 5.8%.

Despite the fact that in the structure of used fuel and energy resources, coal and coal refining products account for 29.4% (in comparable energy units of measurement), the contribution of coal to national net emissions exceeds 55.7%. Therefore, the gradual withdrawal of Kazakhstan's economy from coal dependence is important for low-carbon development and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

In 2020, the country's power plants and thermal power plants (boilers) generated 108.1 billion kWh of electric and 91.2 million Gcal of thermal energy. The sector's contribution to national net GHG emissions amounted to 31.6% or 110.9 million tons of CO2 equivalent.

In 2020, 68.9% of electricity and 99% of heat were produced on the basis of coal combustion. 20% of electricity was generated on natural gas, 0.05% on fuel oil. Hydroelectric power plants generated 8.8% of electricity. Wind power plants, solar power plants and biogas plants produced 2.2% of the generated electricity (taking into account small hydroelectric power plants, the share was 3.0%).

Most power plants operate using outdated technologies that exceeded the design life. In 2020, there were 179 power plants in Kazakhstan: 68 thermal power plants (thermal power plants) (28 coal, 38 gas, 2 fuel oil), of which 41 are CHP plants (CHP); 51 HPPs (45 of them are small HPPs with a capacity of up to 35 MW), 28 wind farms, 31 SPP and 1 Biogas plant. The average age of coal-fired power plants was 55 years, gas - 40 years, hydroelectric power plants - 56 years. About 39% of installed generating capacity is over 40 years old and 64% is over 30 years old.

The distribution systems of both electricity and heat are also worn out, which lead to high losses in energy distribution (up to 35% of total electricity losses in some regions) and are one of the factors that increase GHG emissions from the sector.

Therefore, low-carbon development and the achievement of carbon neutrality in Kazakhstan by 2060 will require a deep transformation of the energy system and will consist of three main elements:

      1) decarbonization of primary energy supplies;

      2) decarbonization of electric and thermal energy production;

      3) decarbonization and highly efficient end-use of energy in buildings, transport and industry.

The greatest reduction in GHG emissions in the energy sector will be achieved through a shift towards more sustainable energy sources: by gradually reducing the volume of fossil fuels, switching to the use of electricity and heat instead of direct burning of fossil fuels. Decarbonization of the energy sector requires the use of natural gas as an intermediate fuel and for this purpose geological exploration will be carried out to identify new gas fields. Alternative and renewable energy sources will be actively developed in the process of decarbonization.

Improving energy efficiency and switching to low-carbon technologies in all sectors of the economy will cause significant changes in the supply of primary energy.

Low-carbon development and carbon-neutral system of 2060 involve the following transformations:

1) gradual replacement of coal with alternative and renewable energy sources;

2) displacement of burning of fossil fuels in the structure of final consumption to the lowest possible level through the electrification of energy consumption in all sectors of the economy;

3) transition to the use of hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic low-carbon fuels in processes that will be difficult or impossible to electrify;

4) application of carbon capture and storage technologies.

For low-carbon development and achieving carbon neutrality, a gradual, planned reduction in the share of coal generation with an increase in the share of renewable energy and alternative energy, as well as the use of natural gas as an intermediate fuel, will be carried out until 2060. The capacity structure will include nuclear power plants as a stable source of energy, so a long-term vision for development of nuclear energy will be developed.

Due to the growing share of electricity generation from renewable energy sources and alternative sources, additional input of maneuverable generation sources is needed. In this regard, a long-term vision for development of solar and wind generation will be developed.

In the medium and long term, there is uncertainty about the availability of sufficient water resources, so a long-term vision for development of hydropower will be formed.

In the medium and long term, carbon capture and storage technology is expected to be used for GHG capture. In this connection, a vision will be developed for decommissioning coal-fired facilities with current operational life of more than 30 years and the introduction of carbon capture and storage technology for those units that will continue to operate after 2035. At the same time, the coal capacities being withdrawn will be given priority right to implement "green" projects in the field of energy.

At the same time, gasification of existing coal facilities can also contribute to reducing emissions.

The production of centralized thermal energy will be decarbonized due to the transition from coal to natural gas,  use of renewable energy in the form of geothermal energy (heat pumps) and biofuels. Decentralized (individual) autonomous heat supply systems will become the main goal of technological changes. In the medium and long term, the use of geothermal energy and hot water supply due to solar energy will be actively developed, therefore, a vision for their development will be developed.

In addition, development of small-scale renewable energy sources, development of "smart" electric power industry will be stimulated, as well as other approaches to decarbonize the electricity and heat generation sector will be used.

At present, coal-fired generation retains a dominant position in the production of electricity and heat, but for low-carbon development and achieving carbon neutrality, a phased, planned reduction in the share of coal generation will be provided until 2060.

The development of renewable energy sources will be a key condition for successful decarbonization. Thus, wind, given its quality and availability in the country, will become the main resource for development at earlier stages, while solar energy will become a key technology at a later stage, when the cost of investments in SPP will noticeably decrease.

In the long term, the use of RES will be accompanied by energy conservation systems, which will allow regulating the supply of electricity and better integrating RES into the energy system.

The strategy of achieving carbon neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2060, being a strategy for economic diversification and its technological breakthrough, should become a new long-term strategic document during the renewal of socio-economic policy of the country.